Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 1.5 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 10.6 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 1.4 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 3.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 10.4 | +2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 8.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 6.1 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 5.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 1.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 7.8 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 1.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 6.1 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CJ DippreTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 9.1 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 13.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 3.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jelani WoodsTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 7.2 | 0.0 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 4.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 19.5 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 25.6 | +20.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 2.8 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 10.6 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | 25.0 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 4.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 3.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 2.1 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 3.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 18.7 | +12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 2.9 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 7.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 6.6 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 0.0 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 6.5 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 5.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 4.5 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 6.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 10.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | 4.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 10.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.9 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 12.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 1.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 134 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse