Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 17.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | 7.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 8.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 2.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 4.9 | 15.1 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 8.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 6.1 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.9 | 14.5 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 7.8 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 15.6 | 29.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 1.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | 7.4 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 12.6 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 11.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | 4.6 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 7.6 | 8.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Theo Wease Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 7.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 6.1 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brady CookQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 7.4 | 9.1 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | 4.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 20.4 | 22.1 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 9.1 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 3.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 7.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 21.3 | 32.4 | +11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 4.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 12.0 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 3.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | 6.1 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 4.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 19.5 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 8.8 | 11.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 15.1 | 17.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 25.6 | +20.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 10.6 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | 8.9 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | 25.0 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 4.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 22.9 | +12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 20.2 | 24.5 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 7.7 | 9.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 3.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 13.4 | 14.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.0 | 15.9 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 18.7 | +12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | 16.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.5) | 18.8 | 22.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 2.9 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 7.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 6.6 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 11.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 6.5 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 5.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 4.5 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 10.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.6 | 20.5 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | 4.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 16.6 | 19.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 4.9 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 10.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | 6.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 12.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 17.9 | 22.1 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | 10.9 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 20.6 | +14.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 22.5 | 37.8 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 17.3 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 19.3 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 3.4 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 11.6 | 27.2 | +15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.4 | 23.4 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 11.5 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 3.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 12.6 | 24.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 3.1 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 5.4 | 9.3 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 14.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 12.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 7.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 7.1 | 11.0 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 11.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.9 | 14.1 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 8.4 | 13.5 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | 10.3 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse