Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Freezing: every call

Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

111–72–26

60.7% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 60.7% (95% 53.4%–67.4%) vs baseline 61.1%

2025 backtest

134–91–30

59.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 59.6% (95% 53.0%–65.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB23–27–246.0%50.4%
WR152–75–2367.0%63.7%
TE70–61–3153.4%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag111–72–2660.7%61.1%
0.25–0.5134–91–3059.6%61.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Freezing calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Brandin CooksWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)6.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Mack HollinsWR NEFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)11.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh ReynoldsWR NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5)19.50.0−19.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18DK MetcalfWR PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2)11.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3)7.510.4+2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyler HuntleyQB BALFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5)14.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyler JohnsonWR NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dee EskridgeWR MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tylan WallaceWR BALFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brandon SmithWR NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Garrett WilsonWR NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hayden RucciTE MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Roman WilsonWR PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Javon BakerWR NEFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Josh ReynoldsWR NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brandon SmithWR NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Justin FieldsQB NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Garrett WilsonWR NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Javon BakerWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kadarius ToneyWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mike WoodsWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kaden DavisWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)7.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)2.00.0−2.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DeAndre CarterWR CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamison CrowderWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris MooreWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Robbie ChosenWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)9.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15River CracraftWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Stephen CarlsonTE CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Collin JohnsonWR CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15K.J. OsbornWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DJ TurnerWR LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kadarius ToneyWR CLEFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mike WoodsWR CLEFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kaden DavisWR CLEFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2)2.1––voidBacktest ·

Page 1 of 4 · 336 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse