Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.1 | 16.6 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 17.2 | 15.6 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 14.0 | 26.9 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.4 | 2.1 | −13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | -2.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.7 | 12.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 24.3 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.9 | 13.0 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.6 | 8.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.5 | 10.6 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.9 | 25.8 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.1 | 33.0 | +20.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 8.3 | 4.2 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.8 | 8.2 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.4 | 12.9 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 17.6 | 16.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.9 | 0.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 11.2 | 1.7 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 7.7 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.1 | 9.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.8 | 11.8 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.8 | 2.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.8 | 16.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 4.7 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.4 | 7.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 10.3 | 12.5 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.8 | 7.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.9 | 13.3 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 4.0 | 6.8 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.7 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 12.3 | 23.7 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 6.5 | 10.3 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.7 | 10.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 19.4 | 28.4 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.2 | 2.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.0 | 4.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse