Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 14.3 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 3.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 6.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 9.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 1.6 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 6.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 6.3 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 4.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | 3.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 22.2 | 16.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 2.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 6.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 14.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.8 | +0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 4.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 10.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.2 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 11.1 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 4.5 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 1.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 1.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 7.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 4.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 13.1 | 9.3 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 24.1 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 15.3 | 12.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 16.9 | 19.5 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 15.4 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 16.4 | 20.2 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 2.3 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 8.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 24.4 | 35.1 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 24.7 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 11.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 0.0 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 10.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 1.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 13.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 4.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse