Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 25.5 | 19.2 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.6 | 30.0 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 6.1 | 1.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 19.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.7 | 8.5 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | 1.1 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.2 | 4.4 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.6 | 24.5 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.3 | 4.4 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.2 | 2.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.7 | 1.3 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.0 | 4.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.2 | 1.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 8.0 | 10.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.7 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 7.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny PickettQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.2 | 16.0 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.4 | 3.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.2 | 6.9 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.4 | 3.8 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 7.8 | 8.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 13.9 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.9 | 2.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 4.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.8 | 11.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.0 | 18.4 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 24.9 | 26.3 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.8 | 16.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.4 | 1.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 11.5 | 13.3 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse