Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | 1.1 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 8.2 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.2 | 15.6 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.1 | 23.0 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 8.7 | 11.7 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 12.6 | 11.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.5 | 3.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.0 | 29.1 | +16.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 21.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.6 | 6.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.0 | 18.6 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.7 | 3.8 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.4 | 4.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | 7.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 15.5 | 15.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 1.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 0.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.4 | 10.0 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 7.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.0 | 14.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.4 | 5.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.8 | 20.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 3.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 1.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse