Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.1 | 1.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.3 | 10.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 25.3 | 36.1 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 1.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.8 | 9.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.7 | 28.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.4 | 10.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.5 | 17.3 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.1 | 1.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.5 | 6.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.3 | 2.9 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.3 | 3.8 | −11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | 4.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 13.4 | 0.0 | −13.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.2 | 7.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 18.2 | 13.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 18.4 | 28.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 15.7 | 19.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 20.5 | 16.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.6 | 23.0 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 17.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.6 | 8.9 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | 1.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 20.9 | 18.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 5.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 17.7 | 37.3 | +19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 11.9 | 18.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.1 | 3.5 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.6 | 3.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 16.4 | 14.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse