Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.4 | 3.3 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.4 | 8.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 20.7 | 13.0 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 22.5 | 4.2 | −18.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.1 | 0.5 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.4 | 3.8 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 12.6 | 11.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.6 | 4.9 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.5 | 8.2 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.8 | 6.5 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.1 | 4.5 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.3 | 3.8 | −11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 18.2 | 13.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 20.5 | 16.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Desmond RidderQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 11.8 | 11.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 12.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.7 | -4.4 | −18.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.6 | 11.6 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.8 | 9.9 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 13.0 | 9.8 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.2 | 12.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.1 | 13.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 18.6 | 14.1 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.4 | 5.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.9 | 6.8 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 17.2 | 15.6 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.4 | 2.1 | −13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 17.6 | 16.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.8 | 11.8 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.8 | 16.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.7 | 10.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 17.6 | 8.0 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 18.8 | 17.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.4 | 0.2 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.0 | 12.2 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 17.0 | 12.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 23.7 | 22.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.5 | 14.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.2 | 15.7 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 17.1 | 13.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.0 | 13.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 15.5 | 6.3 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.0 | 10.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.7 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.7 | 10.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.8 | 7.8 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.5 | 16.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.3 | 8.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.3 | 12.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.0 | 6.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 24.6 | 23.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 18.0 | 4.8 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.2 | 9.7 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.9 | 9.2 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 8.1 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.3 | 15.5 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 17.3 | 12.4 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.8 | 6.2 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 7.2 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.8 | 5.1 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 9.5 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 17.6 | 16.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 17.3 | 14.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.4 | 15.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.2 | 2.1 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.5 | 6.3 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.7 | 14.1 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.9 | 12.5 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 15.5 | 11.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.7 | 7.3 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 13.7 | 12.4 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.6 | 7.4 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 12.9 | 6.5 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.3 | 16.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.4 | 15.9 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 18.1 | 13.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 17.7 | 15.9 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.7 | 12.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 18.0 | 13.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.9 | 9.5 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.8 | 16.3 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse