Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8)20.30.7−19.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)16.28.8−7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris OladokunQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)12.7-1.7−14.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)16.75.2−11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Kenny PickettQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)10.1-1.0−11.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Clayton TuneQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)6.53.7−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)19.210.5−8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)22.515.7−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18J.J. McCarthyQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6)16.48.0−8.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Max BrosmerQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6)13.40.3−13.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)15.17.8−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)12.17.3−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Josh JohnsonQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)11.98.9−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)20.012.8−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)12.79.1−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)12.67.1−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.82.1−15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)15.48.9−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)21.720.4−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.88.9−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Max BrosmerQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)10.93.6−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)17.610.6−7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)19.86.9−12.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)15.80.0−15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3)16.314.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)17.713.1−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)17.811.3−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)13.710.4−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kenny PickettQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)7.51.3−6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)16.911.1−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6)13.39.1−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)15.412.2−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.6)19.711.6−8.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3)21.86.5−15.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)19.416.3−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6)18.616.4−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)14.49.5−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)21.417.2−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)22.37.2−15.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)15.73.5−12.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6)19.08.1−10.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3)22.216.0−6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)13.87.9−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)16.59.9−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)15.312.9−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)16.215.4−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6)15.76.8−8.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)18.93.3−15.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)15.312.6−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6)22.315.4−6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3)9.82.9−6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.6)14.66.4−8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.74.4−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)21.016.6−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.6)22.319.3−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)17.74.9−12.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)18.815.5−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8)13.710.8−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.614.7−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.3)17.712.0−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)13.89.8−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)17.412.1−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.6)22.610.5−12.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.8)20.014.1−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8)18.215.8−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)15.84.4−11.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.6)10.86.4−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)10.29.2−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)13.31.1−12.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Carson WentzQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)14.17.8−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −1.1)18.511.1−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)15.08.6−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)10.3-1.4−11.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)16.85.2−11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)13.510.5−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jayden DanielsQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)22.417.7−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)11.110.2−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3)18.29.3−8.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)21.115.4−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)14.76.6−8.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)15.411.2−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Spencer RattlerQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)16.511.1−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)19.113.4−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)9.78.8−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)13.85.9−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Cooper RushQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)12.21.2−11.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)22.319.4−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)19.215.3−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)18.816.7−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)19.414.6−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)11.68.0−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)16.616.1−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)14.711.7−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)10.84.5−6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3)17.515.8−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)16.413.3−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Spencer RattlerQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.711.7−1.0❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse