Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Josh JohnsonQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −1.4)9.915.7+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)22.326.7+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)13.015.6+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)21.923.3+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)13.916.5+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brady CookQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8)7.49.1+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)17.820.4+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)20.023.1+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)21.332.4+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)18.023.0+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Quinn EwersQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)11.015.8+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)16.325.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.8)15.421.9+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)13.817.1+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)14.815.5+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)14.917.6+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.526.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)18.330.2+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)18.529.0+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)16.231.2+15.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)18.830.9+12.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6)14.217.6+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.3)17.221.0+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)11.018.0+7.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.317.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)15.117.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)10.426.9+16.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)11.716.2+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)18.744.3+25.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)14.615.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)18.523.4+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)17.620.5+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)16.619.0+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)17.922.1+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)18.421.1+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)16.022.3+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)17.019.3+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Tyrod TaylorQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.321.3+10.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)12.313.4+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)14.719.6+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)22.029.4+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3)16.521.7+5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)11.722.5+10.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)12.317.4+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6)20.422.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3)16.917.7+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)19.430.9+11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3)16.817.7+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Davis MillsQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)14.016.4+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.631.8+20.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6)9.713.1+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)14.418.7+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)18.824.8+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)13.519.4+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)18.722.9+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Davis MillsQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6)11.727.7+16.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)15.926.3+10.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6)12.120.1+8.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)16.930.7+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6)13.726.3+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6)17.224.8+7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)23.625.6+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)21.627.7+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)17.121.2+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)13.122.7+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9J.J. McCarthyQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)13.818.9+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)17.827.2+9.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)18.124.3+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3)21.223.2+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.924.2+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)20.525.4+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.6)16.521.7+5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)21.223.8+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)18.426.3+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)10.412.8+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)10.311.5+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)17.127.4+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)15.822.2+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)20.027.9+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)14.317.5+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8)12.020.7+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)21.131.5+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)16.520.0+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6)16.619.2+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)16.218.5+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.428.3+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6)16.226.7+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)15.827.6+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake BrowningQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)12.619.1+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.3)15.222.7+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Justin FieldsQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)20.025.9+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.8)15.928.8+12.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)17.627.4+9.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)16.118.9+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)15.316.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)16.418.4+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)15.218.7+3.5✅Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse