Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Patrick RicardRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE)1.92.4+0.5pushBacktest ·
2024 W18Bucky IrvingRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO)16.016.4+0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W18Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF)1.72.0+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W18Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)4.44.3−0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W18Isaiah DavisRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)4.04.1+0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W17D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)2.93.1+0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W16Raheem MostertRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)6.66.6+0.0pushBacktest ·
2024 W15Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)3.53.5−0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W15Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)1.61.4−0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W15Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W15Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)4.54.2−0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W14Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG)3.73.5−0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W14Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)11.011.0−0.0pushBacktest ·
2024 W14Hunter LuepkeRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN)1.91.5−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W14Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)19.319.3+0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W13Raheem MostertRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)5.55.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W13Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W12Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)2.92.4−0.5pushBacktest ·
2024 W12Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)1.81.5−0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W12Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)3.33.6+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W11Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)3.23.2+0.0pushBacktest ·
2024 W11Ezekiel ElliottRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)5.45.4+0.0pushBacktest ·
2024 W10David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)12.812.6−0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W10Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)2.52.5−0.0pushBacktest ·
2024 W9Brady RussellRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)14.714.9+0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC)9.89.4−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)15.214.7−0.5pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Brady RussellRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Tank BigsbyRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)10.110.6+0.5pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)19.920.3+0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN)2.92.8−0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W7Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)1.61.4−0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W7Audric EstiméRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO)1.30.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W7Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)3.03.3+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W6Jonathan WardRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)1.31.3−0.0pushBacktest ·
2024 W6J.K. DobbinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN)18.618.2−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W5Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)1.21.5+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W5James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)13.614.0+0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W5Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)6.56.6+0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W5Aaron ShampklinRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)1.41.4−0.0pushBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse