Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Austin HooperTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0) | 3.3 | 1.9 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0) | 11.6 | 2.9 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Foster MoreauTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0) | 8.3 | 7.7 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0) | 15.6 | 10.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0) | 8.0 | 4.1 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Daniel BellingerTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0) | 1.9 | 1.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0) | 8.3 | 2.2 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0) | 12.8 | 9.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0) | 5.0 | 3.5 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0) | 8.5 | 3.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0) | 2.6 | 1.9 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0) | 8.6 | 6.2 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0) | 4.9 | 3.4 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Nate BoerkircherTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse