Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.8 | 0.0 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 4 · 366 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse