Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sean McKeonTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josiah DeguaraTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brevin JordanTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)2.92.3−0.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)0.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)3.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)0.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Drake DabneyTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Marlin KleinTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Lawrence CagerTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Sal CannellaTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Carsen RyanTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)0.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse