Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 13.1 | 14.8 | +1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.6 | 2.4 | −8.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.0 | 4.2 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 6 · 522 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse