Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse