Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 15.2 | 12.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.2 | 3.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 14.7 | 13.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.9 | 1.5 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.6 | 1.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.1 | 2.7 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 13.9 | 6.8 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 17.1 | 8.2 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.5 | 1.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.1 | 9.6 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 10.5 | 3.3 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 1.5 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 16.7 | 14.4 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.5 | 1.4 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 0.0 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 5.2 | 0.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.2 | 10.3 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | 1.5 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 16.6 | 4.7 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 5.3 | 3.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 9.2 | 7.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 11.6 | 7.7 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 14.1 | 5.3 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.3 | 4.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 15.8 | 14.1 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 5.3 | 3.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 1.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.0 | 1.9 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 1.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 14.5 | 9.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 17.8 | 10.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 5.6 | 4.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.0 | 12.1 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.9 | 6.4 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.7 | 9.8 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.1 | 1.8 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse