Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 10.5 | 12.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 23.9 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 16.8 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 15.1 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 20.2 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 15.9 | 28.8 | +12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 18.4 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brenden BatesTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 4.3 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 9.8 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 8.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | 21.2 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 22.6 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 9.2 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 9.2 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 16.4 | +12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | 23.8 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 12.5 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 15.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 11.8 | 13.9 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.9 | 27.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 26.1 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 4.5 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 8.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 10.2 | 29.4 | +19.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 11.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 19.8 | 32.8 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 19.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 16.0 | 22.4 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 10.1 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 19.4 | 20.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 15.7 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 11.7 | 17.8 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 10.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 7.4 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 15.3 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 8.8 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 15.2 | 19.2 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 21.2 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 40.9 | +33.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 4.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 18.3 | 22.8 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 18.2 | 26.9 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 4.1 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 5.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 5.7 | 8.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 4.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 15.6 | 17.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 14.5 | 22.6 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 6.2 | 7.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 7.8 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 19.0 | 27.6 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 10.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 6.2 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.7 | 17.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 15.7 | 18.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 14.9 | 20.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | 8.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 13.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.4) | 5.5 | 7.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.3 | 3.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.8 | 5.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 4.7 | 9.6 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.7 | 7.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 6.0 | 14.0 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.5 | 23.6 | +22.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.4 | 14.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.2 | 3.1 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.0 | 3.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 18.8 | 25.8 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.9 | 1.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.0 | 8.6 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.5 | 27.6 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.9 | 25.9 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 19.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 7.0 | 14.4 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 12.6 | 24.5 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.6 | 5.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 7.0 | 24.2 | +17.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 7.4 | 12.0 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 17.6 | 24.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.4 | 10.6 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 11.0 | 18.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 24.9 | 26.3 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 18.7 | 25.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse