Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 16.0 | 22.4 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 10.1 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 19.4 | 20.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 15.7 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 11.7 | 17.8 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 10.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 7.4 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 15.3 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 8.8 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 15.2 | 19.2 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 21.2 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 40.9 | +33.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 4.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 18.3 | 22.8 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 18.2 | 26.9 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 4.1 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 5.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 5.7 | 8.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 4.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 15.6 | 17.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 14.5 | 22.6 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 6.2 | 7.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 7.8 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 19.0 | 27.6 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 10.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 6.2 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.7 | 17.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 15.7 | 18.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 14.9 | 20.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | 8.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 13.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.4) | 5.5 | 7.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 3 of 3 · 236 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse