Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.0 | -0.1 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 8.4 | -0.1 | −8.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah DotsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 12.9 | 0.0 | −12.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse