Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 1.8 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 19.8 | 16.7 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 12.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 23.4 | 4.8 | −18.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 18.7 | 7.5 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | 2.3 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 20.1 | 18.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | 2.0 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 19.0 | 13.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 9.5 | 0.0 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | -0.2 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 1.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 23.0 | 16.7 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 6.9 | 2.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.7 | 8.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 12.4 | 11.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 1.3 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 7.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 5.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 19.4 | 12.5 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 12.0 | 9.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Velus Jones Jr.RB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.3 | 2.1 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 6.9 | 3.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 14.4 | 13.8 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 16.1 | 14.6 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 1.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 17.3 | 12.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 17.6 | 12.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 14.6 | 6.7 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 14.6 | 6.6 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 4.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 5.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 9.2 | 7.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 14.1 | 9.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 14.1 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 17.5 | 15.8 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 8.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.5 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 16.5 | 12.2 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 0.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 10.5 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 12.6 | 6.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 7.8 | 1.4 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 8.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 21.6 | 16.1 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.8 | 1.5 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.5 | 5.4 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 1.7 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 11.8 | 7.3 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.0 | 1.3 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 15.1 | 10.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | 9.8 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 12.7 | 11.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.2 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 7.4 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 15.3 | 3.8 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 12.9 | 6.3 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 6.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 1.5 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | 0.3 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse