Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W1 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 22.6 | 8.5 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 6.0 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 3.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 1.0 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 13.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
NewerPage 6 of 6 · 516 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse