Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 14.1 | 5.3 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.3 | 4.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 15.8 | 14.1 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 5.3 | 3.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 1.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.0 | 1.9 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 1.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 14.5 | 9.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 17.8 | 10.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 5.6 | 4.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.0 | 12.1 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.9 | 6.4 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.7 | 9.8 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.1 | 1.8 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 9.7 | 4.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.3 | 1.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 11.9 | 3.0 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 7.1 | 2.6 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 19.5 | 10.5 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 7.7 | 2.5 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 10.3 | 2.1 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 18.0 | 14.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.0 | 0.7 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 5.6 | 0.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 13.2 | 11.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 15.1 | 13.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.2 | 1.3 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 8.9 | 5.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 5.3 | 1.9 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 16.6 | 7.4 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 8.0 | 3.3 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 8.8 | 7.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.7 | 3.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 10.3 | 8.3 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.8 | 7.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.0 | 0.6 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.2 | 3.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.9 | 0.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 12.0 | 0.0 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.3 | 5.3 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.1 | 12.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.9 | 6.6 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 0.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse