Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W1 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 7.8 | 7.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 2.2 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 9.4 | 8.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 8.8 | 4.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 8.1 | 7.5 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 10.8 | 6.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 9 of 9 · 808 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse