Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 60.4% (95% 56.5%–64.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.7% (95% 57.8%–65.4%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 63.1% (95% 52.4%–72.6%) vs baseline 61.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR339–194–3463.6%63.7%
RB184–116–3361.3%61.8%
TE177–120–5859.6%60.9%
QB55–52–851.4%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag375–246–6860.4%61.4%
0.25–0.5380–236–6561.7%61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Spencer RattlerQB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB)10.414.7+4.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Jared GoffQB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs SF)18.825.8+7.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs NE)17.424.4+7.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Jared GoffQB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI)18.725.3+6.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Sam DarnoldQB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA)17.122.9+5.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Kyler MurrayQB ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR)18.820.4+1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W16C.J. StroudQB HOUFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC)13.816.1+2.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Cooper RushQB DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR)13.319.1+5.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Anthony RichardsonQB INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs NE)17.721.2+3.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W12Cooper RushQB DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS)11.218.0+6.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W12Sam DarnoldQB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI)15.221.1+5.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs NE)14.727.8+13.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Sam DarnoldQB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN)16.123.6+7.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Gardner MinshewQB LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA)11.418.0+6.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA)15.417.9+2.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE)15.519.5+4.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Kirk CousinsQB ATLFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB)16.228.6+12.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Kyler MurrayQB ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA)16.122.2+6.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W6C.J. StroudQB HOUFade (Dome team outdoors vs NE)16.618.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Joe FlaccoQB INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX)13.626.6+13.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Derek CarrQB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC)11.912.6+0.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT)14.916.4+1.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Kyler MurrayQB ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs SF)14.924.1+9.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Sam DarnoldQB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB)14.420.5+6.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Kirk CousinsQB ATLFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI)13.517.5+4.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Gardner MinshewQB LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL)10.712.9+2.3❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse