Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 6.7 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 12.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 7.5 | 16.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 13.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 9.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 11.0 | 15.4 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.2 | 15.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 9.1 | 11.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 9.4 | 16.8 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 13.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 30.3 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | 13.4 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 38.2 | +17.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 6.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | 4.4 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 17.1 | 17.9 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | 5.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 6.1 | 12.5 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 3.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 8.7 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 22.8 | +20.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 12.6 | 18.2 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 10.5 | 12.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 16.4 | +12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 12.5 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.9 | 27.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 8.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 10.2 | 29.4 | +19.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 19.8 | 32.8 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 15.2 | 19.2 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 18.2 | 26.9 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 5.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 5.7 | 8.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 4.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 10.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 14.9 | 20.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | 8.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse