Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.4 | 5.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 15.3 | 15.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.9 | 3.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 10.3 | 10.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 14.7 | 14.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 2.0 | 2.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.1 | 5.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 16.5 | 16.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | 1.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 13.3 | 12.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse