Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.9 | 3.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.8 | 3.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.0 | 5.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 11.1 | 9.8 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.9 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 6.3 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 14.6 | 12.3 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 15.3 | 8.1 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | 0.3 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.7 | 0.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 10.2 | 5.1 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 12.5 | 10.1 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.8 | 0.3 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.5 | 1.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 5.2 | 0.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 5.3 | 3.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 14.1 | 5.3 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 1.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 17.8 | 10.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.0 | 12.1 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.1 | 1.8 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 19.5 | 10.5 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 18.0 | 14.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.0 | 0.7 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 8.0 | 3.3 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.0 | 0.6 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.9 | 0.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.9 | 6.6 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 0.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.0 | 2.9 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.2 | 0.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 10.1 | 1.7 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 18.2 | 12.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 4.9 | 0.9 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 12.2 | 3.4 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.6 | 2.3 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 5.2 | 0.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 13.1 | 8.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 9.3 | 6.1 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.7 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.8 | 1.2 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 5.3 | 4.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 7.8 | 7.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse