Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
WR	339–194–34	63.6%	63.7%
RB	184–116–33	61.3%	61.8%
TE	177–120–58	59.6%	60.9%
QB	55–52–8	51.4%	50.4%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	375–246–68	60.4%	61.4%
0.25–0.5	380–236–65	61.7%	61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Alec IngoldRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	3.1	0.0	−3.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Jahmyr GibbsRB DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)	26.5	17.7	−8.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Sione VakiRB DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)	4.9	2.7	−2.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Blake CorumRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)	7.7	3.1	−4.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	DeeJay DallasRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	2.3	0.2	−2.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Kimani VidalRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	3.9	3.0	−0.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Blake CorumRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)	6.9	3.5	−3.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Omarion HamptonRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	12.3	5.6	−6.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Max BredesonRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	1.1	0.0	−1.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Demond ClaiborneRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	2.0	0.1	−1.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W2	Aaron JonesRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)	12.4	10.5	−1.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Alvin KamaraRB NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)	8.8	7.2	−1.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Travis EtienneRB NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)	9.6	7.1	−2.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Sione VakiRB DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	4.4	3.0	−1.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Max BredesonRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)	1.1	0.0	−1.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	CJ DonaldsonRB NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)	2.0	0.2	−1.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse