Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 60.4% (95% 56.5%–64.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.7% (95% 57.8%–65.4%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 63.1% (95% 52.4%–72.6%) vs baseline 61.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR339–194–3463.6%63.7%
RB184–116–3361.3%61.8%
TE177–120–5859.6%60.9%
QB55–52–851.4%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag375–246–6860.4%61.4%
0.25–0.5380–236–6561.7%61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Alec IngoldRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.10.0−3.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaret PattersonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)2.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Hassan HaskinsRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)16.736.7+20.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Keaton MitchellRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.711.3+7.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Scott MatlockRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)26.517.7−8.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sione VakiRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)4.92.7−2.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.411.6+8.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake CorumRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)7.73.1−4.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Amar JohnsonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)10.213.3+3.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3C.J. HamRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)14.614.2−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Alec IngoldRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.16.5+4.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3DeeJay DallasRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)2.30.2−2.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jaret PattersonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan MasonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)6.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Hassan HaskinsRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)14.421.8+7.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Keaton MitchellRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.713.7+11.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Scott MatlockRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.93.0−0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Blake CorumRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)6.93.5−3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Amar JohnsonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)12.35.6−6.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Max BredesonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Demond ClaiborneRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)2.00.1−1.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2C.J. HamRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)12.410.5−1.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Alvin KamaraRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)8.87.2−1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Nyheim HinesRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2DeeJay DallasRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)1.73.0+1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Travis EtienneRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)9.67.1−2.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)3.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jordan MasonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)6.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Evan HullRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Kendre MillerRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)22.923.3+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sione VakiRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)4.43.0−1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Audric EstiméRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)5.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Devin NealRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Max BredesonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2CJ DonaldsonRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.00.2−1.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse