Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 11.7 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 22.4 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 8.8 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 20.2 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 3.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 10.6 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse