Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 2.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 2.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 1.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 5.6 | 5.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 8.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 8.1 | 7.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 14.1 | 13.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse