Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 127 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse