Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 10.7 | 4.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.7 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.2 | 3.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.6 | 1.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 17.1 | 8.2 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 1.5 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.5 | 1.4 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 1.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.0 | 1.9 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 10.3 | 8.3 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.2 | 3.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 6.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.4 | 1.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 5.5 | 3.5 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.1 | 1.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.8 | 1.9 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 8.1 | 5.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 4.2 | 2.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 9.4 | 8.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 8.8 | 4.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse