Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
WR	339–194–34	63.6%	63.7%
RB	184–116–33	61.3%	61.8%
TE	177–120–58	59.6%	60.9%
QB	55–52–8	51.4%	50.4%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	375–246–68	60.4%	61.4%
0.25–0.5	380–236–65	61.7%	61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Tay MartinWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Xavier SmithWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)	2.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Derius DavisWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	1.3	1.6	+0.3	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Malik CunninghamWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Dominic LovettWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	3.7	0.0	−3.7	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Justin JeffersonWR MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)	15.4	5.2	−10.2	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Tutu AtwellWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)	3.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Derius DavisWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	1.7	0.0	−1.7	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Dante PettisWR NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Tom KennedyWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Samori ToureWR NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)	2.9	1.7	−1.2	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Tay MartinWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Ronnie BellWR NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)	3.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Malik CunninghamWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Mason TiptonWR NO	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Tai FeltonWR MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)	0.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Dominic LovettWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	0.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse