Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 60.4% (95% 56.5%–64.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.7% (95% 57.8%–65.4%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 63.1% (95% 52.4%–72.6%) vs baseline 61.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR339–194–3463.6%63.7%
RB184–116–3361.3%61.8%
TE177–120–5859.6%60.9%
QB55–52–851.4%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag375–246–6860.4%61.4%
0.25–0.5380–236–6561.7%61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)7.711.7+4.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)12.716.2+3.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)16.736.7+20.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Keaton MitchellRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.711.3+7.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)11.822.4+10.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)17.327.7+10.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.411.6+8.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Oronde Gadsden IITE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)7.08.8+1.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)10.213.3+3.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)5.713.5+7.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tre HarrisWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)7.39.0+1.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2)14.420.9+6.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)18.520.7+2.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)4.020.2+16.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Alec IngoldRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.16.5+4.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)14.421.8+7.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Keaton MitchellRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.713.7+11.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)8.720.0+11.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Davis AllenTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)2.63.9+1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Myles PriceWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)0.96.0+5.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)4.019.3+15.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tre HarrisWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)6.513.6+7.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jared GoffQB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2)16.729.8+13.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Juwan JohnsonTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)8.610.6+2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2DeeJay DallasRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)1.73.0+1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)18.235.2+17.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Chris OlaveWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)13.822.6+8.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)10.817.2+6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Devaughn VeleWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)7.711.4+3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyler ShoughQB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2)14.222.4+8.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse