Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Explosive plays: every call
Defenses that allow more 20-yard plays boost players whose points come from big plays.
2024 backtest
2–1–1
66.7% vs 36.3% baseline
2025 backtest
17–14–1
54.8% vs 49.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
8–4
66.7% vs 47.5% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 16–14–2 | 53.3% | 47.3% |
| RB | 3–1 | 75.0% | 55.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 19–15–2 | 55.9% | 48.3% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 16.2 | 13.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 21.1 | 20.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 7.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Explosive plays vs DET, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 8.2 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 3.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Explosive plays vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 7.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 24.3 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 9.8 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.4) | 13.2 | 26.9 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Explosive plays vs TB, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 11.1 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Explosive plays vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 10.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Explosive plays vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 16.5 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Explosive plays vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 17.7 | 9.8 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse