Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.7) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.5) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 15.8 | 0.0 | −15.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.4) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.7) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 1.9 | −7.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 19.0 | 15.8 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.4) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.8) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 14.7 | 0.0 | −14.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
NewerPage 2 of 2 · 139 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse