Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 4.9 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 7.8 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.8) | 10.8 | 9.6 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 14.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs TB, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 6.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.7) | 13.7 | 14.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 12.3 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 18.0 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 4.7 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 28.6 | +16.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 4.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 15.8 | 14.1 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 29.8 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 13.2 | 9.4 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 20.8 | 26.5 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.5 | 9.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 9.9 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.7) | 10.7 | 25.3 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 0.9 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 14.3 | 16.3 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 14.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 16.8 | 8.4 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | 10.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 55.4 | +35.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.7) | 11.8 | 11.1 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 4.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 8.5 | 5.4 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 8.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 5.4 | 7.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.7) | 12.2 | 7.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 3.9 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 11.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 23.3 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 4.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 11.9 | 0.0 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 16.0 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 7.3 | 19.5 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 12.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 5.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 6.2 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 17.5 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | 4.4 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 17.1 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 13.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 18.5 | 39.6 | +21.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 18.2 | 8.7 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 18.7 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 7.8 | 3.2 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.6) | 11.4 | 18.1 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 14.4 | 10.8 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 6.5 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | 10.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 11.8 | 0.0 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 15.8 | 4.3 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 26.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 18.0 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs TB, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 4.0 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 10.0 | 3.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 22.1 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 8.9 | 10.8 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 5.4 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 8.4 | 9.8 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 15.5 | 23.3 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 19.4 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 7.8 | 3.9 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs TB, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 8.3 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 0.0 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 18.7 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 15.6 | 22.4 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 14.8 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 16.1 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 10.0 | 8.3 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 6.3 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 12.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 11.6 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 7.9 | 7.4 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 12.6 | 27.5 | +14.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 13.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 7.9 | 8.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.8) | 16.7 | 15.2 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 12.4 | 29.3 | +16.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.3 | 41.3 | +27.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 12.8 | 3.0 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 21.7 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 11.3 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse