Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W3 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 9.4 | 5.7 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 21.2 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 11.3 | 9.8 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 20.8 | 6.6 | −14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs DET, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 24.7 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Josh ReynoldsWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 13.3 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.5 | 1.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 23.9 | 19.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 17.8 | 7.5 | −10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 11.6 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 17.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 3 of 3 · 213 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse