Edgehalla

Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth

Middle of the field: every call

Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.

2024 backtest

238–254–36

48.4% vs 51.4% baseline

Win rate 48.4% (95% 44.0%–52.8%) vs baseline 51.4%

2025 backtest

35–31–1

53.0% vs 44.5% baseline

Win rate 53.0% (95% 41.2%–64.6%) vs baseline 44.5%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

25–22–1

53.2% vs 48.8% baseline

Win rate 53.2% (95% 39.2%–66.7%) vs baseline 48.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
TE70–69–1150.4%50.9%
WR197–208–2548.6%50.4%
RB6–8–142.9%55.1%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5227–229–3249.8%50.4%
0.5–145–54–545.5%51.2%
1+1–233.3%63.7%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllWRTERB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Middle of the field calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W5KaVontae TurpinWR DALBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)3.28.4+5.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.7)10.913.0+2.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Tank DellWR HOUFade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4)10.17.3−2.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4)10.26.6−3.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Robert WoodsWR HOUFade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.3)4.32.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4)13.28.2−5.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Josh ReynoldsWR DENFade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4)6.80.0−6.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Dalton SchultzTE HOUFade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.4)8.36.4−1.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.3)8.10.0−8.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)5.71.6−4.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4)11.017.3+6.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Darnell MooneyWR ATLFade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3)11.58.6−2.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3)10.812.0+1.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4)10.07.6−2.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3)8.50.0−8.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3)13.312.4−0.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5)9.310.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)7.92.3−5.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)6.922.2+15.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.3)14.82.0−12.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5)3.26.0+2.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Hunter HenryTE NEFade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3)7.62.9−4.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.64.9+2.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATLFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5)9.45.7−3.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Jakobi MeyersWR LVBoost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4)8.821.2+12.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3)9.215.5+6.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3)5.00.0−5.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXFade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4)11.39.8−1.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4)20.86.6−14.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBBoost (Middle of the field vs DET, expected +0.3)12.524.7+12.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Josh ReynoldsWR DENBoost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3)8.913.3+4.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)4.51.5−3.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W2CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4)23.919.0−4.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.3)13.68.5−5.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4)17.87.5−10.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Dontayvion WicksWR GBBoost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3)5.111.6+6.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)10.53.4−7.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.3)13.717.7+4.0✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 3 of 3 · 238 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse