Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 18.1 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 20.6 | 30.8 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 11.8 | 12.5 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 18.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 6.6 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 12.1 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 17.6 | 9.9 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 26.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 6.3 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 12.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 44.0 | +29.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse