Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth

Middle of the field: every call

Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.

2024 backtest

238–254–36

48.4% vs 51.4% baseline

2025 backtest

35–31–1

53.0% vs 44.5% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

25–22–1

53.2% vs 48.8% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
TE	70–69–11	50.4%	50.9%
WR	197–208–25	48.6%	50.4%
RB	6–8–1	42.9%	55.1%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
0.25–0.5	227–229–32	49.8%	50.4%
0.5–1	45–54–5	45.5%	51.2%
1+	1–2	33.3%	63.7%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll WR TE RB

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Middle of the field calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Laquon TreadwellWR IND	Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.4)	2.6	9.2	+6.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA	Fade (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected −0.4)	23.0	12.6	−10.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Ladd McConkeyWR LAC	Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3)	8.9	0.0	−8.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Jordan WatkinsWR SF	Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3)	3.3	0.0	−3.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Josh CameronWR JAX	Boost (Middle of the field vs CIN, expected +0.3)	3.1	6.2	+3.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Stefon DiggsWR WAS	Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.6)	10.3	7.3	−3.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	CeeDee LambWR DAL	Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3)	17.1	20.2	+3.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:55 UTC
2026 W3	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET	Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3)	20.9	11.9	−9.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Jameson WilliamsWR DET	Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3)	13.1	8.9	−4.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA	Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.7)	20.9	35.4	+14.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Zay FlowersWR BAL	Fade (Middle of the field vs DAL, expected −0.3)	16.4	15.4	−1.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:55 UTC
2026 W3	Rashee RiceWR KC	Boost (Middle of the field vs MIA, expected +0.3)	13.0	15.8	+2.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Keenan AllenWR IND	Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3)	9.6	1.5	−8.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 22:50 UTC
2026 W2	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET	Boost (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected +0.4)	18.2	35.2	+17.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Chris OlaveWR NO	Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3)	13.8	22.6	+8.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Alec PierceWR IND	Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5)	11.8	2.1	−9.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 22:50 UTC

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse