Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 16.2 | 13.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 21.6 | 14.4 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 12.2 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 5.7 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.2 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 23.1 | 9.4 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 17.2 | 12.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 3.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 4.3 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 11.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 1.5 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 21.3 | 4.3 | −17.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 2.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 4.3 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 8.3 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | 5.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 6.1 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 3.9 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 4.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 18.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 18.6 | 9.4 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 5.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse