Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth

Middle of the field: every call

Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.

2024 backtest

238–254–36

48.4% vs 51.4% baseline

2025 backtest

35–31–1

53.0% vs 44.5% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

25–22–1

53.2% vs 48.8% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
TE	70–69–11	50.4%	50.9%
WR	197–208–25	48.6%	50.4%
RB	6–8–1	42.9%	55.1%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
0.25–0.5	227–229–32	49.8%	50.4%
0.5–1	45–54–5	45.5%	51.2%
1+	1–2	33.3%	63.7%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll WR TE RB

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Middle of the field calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Keenan AllenWR IND	Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3)	10.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Demarcus RobinsonWR SF	Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3)	5.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	David NjokuTE LAC	Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.4)	5.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Darius SlaytonWR NYG	Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3)	7.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Isaiah HodginsWR NYG	Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.4)	5.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jake TongesTE SF	Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Alec PierceWR IND	Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.5)	11.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Rashee RiceWR KC	Fade (Middle of the field vs LV, expected −0.3)	14.3	0.0	−14.3	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Ricky PearsallWR SF	Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4)	11.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W3	Jake TongesTE SF	Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3)	3.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Luke McCaffreyWR WAS	Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.5)	2.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Ricky PearsallWR SF	Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3)	12.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Darius CooperWR PHI	Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3)	3.0	0.0	−3.0	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-28 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Zay FlowersWR BAL	Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3)	16.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Puka NacuaWR LAR	Fade (Middle of the field vs NYG, expected −0.3)	17.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-21 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Jahdae WalkerWR CHI	Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3)	3.1	0.0	−3.1	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse