Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.8 | 7.9 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 7.5 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 17.8 | 24.9 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 16.2 | 13.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 21.6 | 14.4 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 2.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 15.6 | 29.8 | +14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 12.2 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 10.4 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 5.7 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.2 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 5.2 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 11.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 23.1 | 9.4 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 17.2 | 12.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 19.4 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 3.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier RestrepoWR TEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 8.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 5.2 | 25.6 | +20.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 5.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 10.5 | 2.6 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 4.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 2.7 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 4.3 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 14.6 | 20.6 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 11.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 13.6 | 2.4 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 1.5 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 8.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 21.3 | 4.3 | −17.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 2.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 4.3 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 8.3 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 7.5 | 14.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 7.1 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 5.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 6.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | 15.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 20.9 | 6.2 | −14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | 5.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 22.1 | 14.3 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 6.1 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 3.9 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 20.7 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 4.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 18.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 16.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 21.7 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 18.6 | 9.4 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 12.9 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 21.6 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 6.7 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 19.5 | 38.1 | +18.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 5.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 13.7 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 22.6 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse