Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 30.6 | +17.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 3.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 8.3 | 6.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 3.0 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 19.3 | 11.9 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 17.2 | 24.1 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 15.7 | 6.2 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 2.8 | +0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 5.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 13.9 | 9.9 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 17.6 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 4.9 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 20.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 0.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 9.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 2.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.5 | 12.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 0.0 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 7.1 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 12.9 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 15.1 | 23.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | 17.8 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 11.9 | 11.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 11.8 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | 0.0 | −16.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 1.5 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 4.2 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 15.4 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 21.4 | 21.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 24.4 | 14.4 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 2.2 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 16.4 | 8.0 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 18.8 | 26.3 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 7.7 | 15.8 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 15.8 | 6.1 | −9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 7.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 13.7 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 7.9 | 4.8 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 12.8 | 8.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 3.1 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 10.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 29.0 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 20.1 | 18.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 2.0 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 19.0 | 13.7 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 12.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 12.7 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 15.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 11.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 7.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 17.5 | 7.3 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 20.5 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 6.4 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 15.6 | 14.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 24.6 | 36.0 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 4.1 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 13.3 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 8.9 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 19.0 | 3.3 | −15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 7.5 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.7 | 14.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 10.7 | 2.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 2 of 2 · 175 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse