Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W14 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 5.1 | 0.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.6) | 15.2 | 18.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 17.3 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.5) | 12.9 | 11.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 9.2 | 5.1 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.8) | 13.6 | 21.2 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.0) | 17.6 | 14.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 11.3 | 6.4 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 8.7 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 11.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | 0.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 18.5 | 10.8 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 5.8 | 7.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 14.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 16.7 | +14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 14.2 | 5.8 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 7.3 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 7.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 10.4 | 22.0 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 12.4 | 9.4 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 6.2 | 9.4 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.3) | 16.7 | 10.1 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 11.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.4) | 12.0 | 9.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 14.7 | 21.5 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 11.4 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 5.1 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 17.5 | 16.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.8) | 17.4 | 18.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 13.5 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 12.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 8.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 10.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 4.5 | 11.1 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.3) | 21.1 | 30.3 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 10.3 | 1.4 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.6) | 21.6 | 19.4 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.7) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.1) | 12.0 | 4.3 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 13.3 | 20.7 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 11.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 7.7 | 2.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 21.2 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 6.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.1) | 19.4 | 22.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 11.8 | 24.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4) | 11.4 | 8.7 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 12.1 | 20.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 23.4 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | 4.7 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 12.5 | 6.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.6) | 13.0 | 11.4 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −2.3) | 20.3 | 8.6 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 17.6 | 21.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | 5.2 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 17.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 18.1 | 5.8 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 6.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.6) | 20.9 | 14.7 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.1) | 16.7 | 15.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 6.9 | 5.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 3.0 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 17.2 | 24.1 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 12.0 | 9.5 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 15.7 | 6.2 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 8.2 | 10.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 10.1 | 16.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 24.4 | 35.1 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 5.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.1) | 15.9 | 10.0 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −1.1) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 17.6 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 9.3 | 29.5 | +20.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 1.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 4.9 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 12.4 | 8.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 4.5 | 3.4 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 10.7 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 18.7 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.8 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 0.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 7.0 | 8.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 9.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 9.6 | 6.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.8 | 0.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.7 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | 2.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 13.0 | 8.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 17.1 | 32.3 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 11.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.6) | 21.5 | 17.6 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 0.0 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse