Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W3 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 10.2 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 8.8 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.3) | 17.2 | 16.3 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 13.1 | 16.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 5.2 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 14.5 | 9.8 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 14.6 | 19.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.7) | 14.3 | 44.0 | +29.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 3.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.6 | 5.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 17.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.6) | 13.8 | 13.1 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 15.5 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.4) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 11.6 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 8.7 | +3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 15.0 | 14.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 17.4 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 1.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.1) | 16.4 | 15.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −1.1) | 20.2 | 24.4 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 14.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 16.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 4.6 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 17.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 14.1 | 3.9 | −10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 10.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 12.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 18.9 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 10.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 13.9 | 22.0 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.7 | 0.0 | −6.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | 12.1 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 17.5 | 10.8 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 14.0 | 5.0 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 21.6 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 0.4 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 11.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 17.9 | 13.3 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 18.9 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 17.9 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.6) | 18.1 | 14.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.6) | 17.5 | 18.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 14.9 | 23.0 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 11 of 11 · 1,065 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse